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Theta Time Shift
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Live badge above is the only ACT / SIT call. Most days we do nothing.
1–7 DTE film
Winner is starred. Same-strike vs walk-1-EDR scored on each listed expiry.
Theta Time Shift — what / when / how
The 3:07 PM CT Dashboard print is the fish. TTS is the salvage desk for that fish while it is still alive (cash session only). We will not win every day. The job is to not lock the leftover $4.xx when the ocean says the threatened wing is about to die — and to sit on every other day.
1. The only three calls
Read the live badge at the top of this page. That is the order. Email (when we send one) fires only on MOVE or FLATTEN — never on a sit day.
| Badge | You do | Why |
|---|---|---|
| RIDE / WATCH SKIP CLEAR | SIT. Do not send a combo. Let the 3:07 iron condor work. | 0 DTE ocean does not show a kill. Remaining EDR is shrinking around a still-safe short. |
| TTS PUSH | ACT NOW. Schwab already open. Send Ticket A (4-leg put or call roll) as one combo. Pair Ticket B (cheap wing for nickels) on the same send if the broker takes 6 legs. | Near-breach + continuation in the 0 DTE ocean + the bounce is still offering a bid. Wait and the vertical maxes. |
| FLATTEN | CLOSE both wings. Do not sell a new vertical. | 0 DTE is already ~80%+ of width. Rolling into the future is a fat debit. Cash is the position. |
| INCONCLUSIVE | Wait for the next gold pill on the clock (8:32 / 8:33 / 8:45 / 9:00). | Book is one-sided or the three looks disagree. Do not guess. |
| NO POSITION / DARK | Nothing to salvage. | No official PLACE ride on the book (all red cards, or weekend/holiday). |
2. The leftover-risk math (why we move at all)
SPXW iron condors here are $5-wide. Credit collected at 3:07 is typically $0.65–$0.80. If the threatened short is tagged at expiration, you keep the credit and lose the width:
Leftover if 0 DTE dies = $5.00 − credit → e.g. $0.80 in leaves $4.20 still exposed
TTS does not magically erase a $5 wing. Stacking credits ($0.80 now + $0.60 in the future ≈ $1.40) still leaves new leftover risk. What TTS can do is swap a high-odds same-day loss for a high-odds later win (more air, more theta) — if we move on the bounce before the 0 DTE vertical is maxed. If the new shorts get tagged, max loss is about the same and we gave the market extra nights. That is why most days are SIT.
| Piece | What it is |
|---|---|
| Ticket B — cheap wing | Close the far vertical for nickels (often $0.05–$0.10). That wing already won. Harvest, don’t wait for it to bounce back — it rarely does with enough travel. |
| Ticket A — threatened wing | One 4-leg combo: buy back today’s short, sell today’s long, sell a future short, buy a future long. Never close the whole iron condor first — that locks width minus credit in the gap. |
| Score | new credit − 0 DTE close debit − fees + 0.02×new air − 0.04×DTE |
| If score < −$1.50 | FLATTEN instead of rolling. That is the 8/18 10:00 lesson (buy back $5, sell $2.50). |
3. EDR narrows every minute — that is the sit/act envelope
Full-day EDR is the “weather range.” As cash time burns, remaining EDR collapses (example: ~22 pts at 10:44 CT with a band 7673–7717, down toward ~6–10 pts by the close). Two different EDRs live on this desk:
| Which EDR | Job |
|---|---|
| Intraday remaining range (your 22.05 → 6–10) | If the threatened short is outside the remaining band, the tag is no longer the expected path → SIT. If the short is still inside that shrinking band, the tag is still in play → watch for MOVE. |
| 1-day walk-1-EDR (VIX / √252, often ~50–80 pts) | Used only to pick the future short when we already decided to MOVE (honest spot minus one day’s EDR, even $5). |
Example (Labor-Day-week Conservative 7665 / 7770, credit $0.80): remaining band 7673–7717 at 10:44 puts the short put 8 pts below the floor. Ocean P/C on 0 DTE was ~0.70 (calls heavier). That is a SIT tape even though cash is down from Friday. A MOVE day looks like 8/18: dead center sitting on the shorts, 0 DTE P/C 10+, put vertical already 40%+ of width — then you take the bounce, not the flush.
4. When we look (America/Chicago)
| Clock | What happens | You |
|---|---|---|
| Until 8:30 | Desk is frost. SPX cannot fill. | Schwab + charts up. Do not send. |
| 8:31 / 8:32 / 8:33 | Three Looks. 2-of-3 hurricane + TTS band → one TTS PUSH. | Finger on the trigger at 8:33. Moments, not a sit. |
| 8:45 / 9:00 | Only if 8:33 was inconclusive. | Same rule, once. |
| 10 / 11 / 12 / 13 / 14 | Hourly film. Remaining EDR is already shrinking. After 10:00 a real hurricane is often maxed. | New ACT only if path is still a hurricane and we never pushed. After a MOVE, this film is for rollback (future shorts cheap). |
| 3:00 close | Advice off. | Study only. Next 3:07 is a new fish, not a TTS rewrite. |
We do not ping you every hour on RIDE days. Silence is the product working.
5. How the 0 DTE ocean decides (Fear Wave)
Cash direction by 10:00 CT often keeps the day’s sign. Pullbacks are common; full reversals that resurrect the far wing are rare. TTS still follows the options book, not the cash arrow:
- Path — honest spot / dead center inside or within a step of the threatened short (not 20 pts away).
- Continuation — 0 DTE or 1 DTE put/call ladder elevated (put threat ≥ ~2.0 is hurricane-class) or an against-tape rock on that wing (they bid the dip; the book still wants the tag).
- Near-breach, not maxed — threatened $5 vertical about 25–80% of width. Below ~25% you are rolling a winner. At ≥80% flatten.
- Far wing already dead — salvage ≤ ~$0.20. If that wing still has real bid, the day might actually reverse.
- Future sheet still pays — best 1–7 DTE score not a fat debit; new air ≥ 25 pts.
All five true → MOVE on the bounce (the sucker bid). Missing them → SIT. That is how we tell a salvage day from a down day that still expires inside the shorts.
6. How you will be told
- This page — badge + SIT/ACT box. Refresh with the pills. Valid only 8:30–3:00 CT Mon–Fri.
- Urgent email — only on TTS PUSH or FLATTEN, silo VixShield, to members who signed this desk. We do not email sit days.
- Dashboard — still the 3:07 fish. TTS never un-prints yesterday’s card.
We may not win every session. The goal is: when a loss is the path, we know when (bounce inside the storm, before 10:00 if we can), where (best of 1–7 DTE, starred row), and how (one combo, cheap wing for nickels). On every other day, do nothing.